Coritiba
9%
Fair odds 11.04
Flamengo RJ
Model pick
75%
Fair odds 1.33
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Coritiba | Draw | Flamengo RJ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 9% | 16% | 75% |
| Elo model | 13% | 23% | 64% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Flamengo RJ
Flamengo RJ are rated 264 points above Coritiba (1565 to 1301), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Coritiba
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to Coritiba's chance of winning and takes the same from Flamengo RJ's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Flamengo RJ
Expected goals 0.8 to 2.6. Coritiba score 0.7 a match against an average side (20th in Brasileirão); Flamengo RJ concede 1.1 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Flamengo RJ
Coritiba LWLLD, lost 6 rating points; Flamengo RJ WWWWW, gained 28 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Flamengo RJ
Coritiba won 1, drew 0 and lost 4 of the last 5 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CoritibaFlamengo RJCoritiba
5/10 over 2.5
10 scored
20 conceded
09/01
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/09
10/12
10/17
10/26
10/31
11/04
Flamengo RJ
7/10 over 2.5
23 scored
8 conceded
09/02
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/08
10/11
10/18
10/26
10/29
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 0-2
- 0-3
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 1-3
- 1-1
- 0-4
- 1-4
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 |
| 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Coritiba | Draw | Flamengo RJ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coritiba | 10%10.34 | 9%10.62 | 16%6.08 |
| Level | 0%— | 6%17.06 | 33%3.03 |
| Flamengo RJ | 0%— | 0%— | 25%3.97 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Coritiba wins4Flamengo RJ wins- L Flamengo RJ vs Coritiba 3-0
- L Coritiba vs Flamengo RJ 2-3
- L Flamengo RJ vs Coritiba 3-0
- W Coritiba vs Flamengo RJ 1-0
- L Flamengo RJ vs Coritiba 2-0
5 meetings in the data. Results shown from Coritiba's side.