Corum
Model pick
49%
Fair odds 2.04
Kocaelispor
25%
Fair odds 4.01
The prediction
- 1–112%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Corum | Draw | Kocaelispor | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Elo model | 52% | 26% | 22% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Corum
Corum are rated 42 points above Kocaelispor (1533 to 1491), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Corum
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Corum's chance of winning and takes the same from Kocaelispor's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Corum
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.1. Corum score 1.4 a match against an average side (7th in Süper Lig); Kocaelispor concede 1.1 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Corum WLWWL, gained 15 rating points; Kocaelispor DWLLW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
CorumKocaelisporCorum
8/10 over 2.5
21 scored
16 conceded
08/14
08/22
08/31
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/16
10/25
10/31
Kocaelispor
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
9 conceded
08/16
08/24
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/23
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Corum | Draw | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corum | 28%3.51 | 4%23.70 | 1%79.37 |
| Level | 18%5.54 | 15%6.48 | 9%11.09 |
| Kocaelispor | 3%33.22 | 5%18.52 | 15%6.61 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.