Crawley Town
33%
Fair odds 3.05
Barnet
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.42
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Crawley Town | Draw | Barnet | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| Elo model | 24% | 27% | 49% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Barnet
Barnet are rated 153 points above Crawley Town (1286 to 1133), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Crawley Town
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Crawley Town's chance of winning and takes the same from Barnet's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Barnet
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.5. Crawley Town score 0.7 a match against an average side (16th in League Two); Barnet concede 2.0 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Crawley Town WDLLD, barely moved; Barnet DWDLW, lost 9 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Crawley TownBarnetCrawley Town
5/10 over 2.5
11 scored
19 conceded
08/29
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Barnet
7/10 over 2.5
20 scored
14 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Crawley Town | Draw | Barnet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town | 20%4.98 | 6%17.04 | 3%31.35 |
| Level | 11%8.77 | 15%6.88 | 16%6.21 |
| Barnet | 2%56.18 | 4%22.57 | 23%4.43 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Crawley Town wins1Barnet wins- D Crawley Town vs Barnet 1-1
- L Barnet vs Crawley Town 2-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Crawley Town's side.