Crewe
30%
Fair odds 3.37
Grimsby
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.31
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Crewe | Draw | Grimsby | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 30% | 27% | 43% |
| Elo model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Grimsby
Grimsby are rated 35 points above Crewe (1254 to 1219), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Crewe
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Crewe's chance of winning and takes the same from Grimsby's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Grimsby
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.5. Crewe score 0.6 a match against an average side (19th in League Two); Grimsby concede 1.8 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Crewe DLLWW, lost 7 rating points; Grimsby WWDLL, gained 6 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Grimsby
Crewe won 3, drew 0 and lost 5 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CreweGrimsbyCrewe
3/10 over 2.5
13 scored
15 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Grimsby
6/10 over 2.5
19 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Crewe | Draw | Grimsby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crewe | 18%5.71 | 5%19.38 | 2%40.82 |
| Level | 11%9.07 | 16%6.24 | 16%6.39 |
| Grimsby | 2%60.24 | 5%20.88 | 26%3.89 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Crewe wins5Grimsby wins- L Grimsby vs Crewe 3-2
- W Crewe vs Grimsby 3-2
- W Crewe vs Grimsby 2-0
- W Grimsby vs Crewe 0-2
- L Crewe vs Grimsby 0-3
- L Grimsby vs Crewe 2-1
- L Grimsby vs Crewe 2-0
- L Crewe vs Grimsby 0-3
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Crewe's side.