Cruzeiro
27%
Fair odds 3.74
Palmeiras
Model pick
46%
Fair odds 2.18
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Cruzeiro | Draw | Palmeiras | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 27% | 27% | 46% |
| Elo model | 32% | 28% | 40% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Palmeiras
Palmeiras are rated 92 points above Cruzeiro (1543 to 1451), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Cruzeiro
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Cruzeiro's chance of winning and takes the same from Palmeiras's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Palmeiras
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.5. Cruzeiro score 1.1 a match against an average side (3rd in Brasileirão); Palmeiras concede 1.0 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Cruzeiro WWWWL, gained 13 rating points; Palmeiras WDWWW, gained 20 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Palmeiras
Cruzeiro won 1, drew 3 and lost 3 of the last 7 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CruzeiroPalmeirasCruzeiro
7/10 over 2.5
21 scored
15 conceded
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/08
10/13
10/18
10/23
10/29
11/06
Palmeiras
2/10 over 2.5
18 scored
3 conceded
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/09
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/28
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Cruzeiro | Draw | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro | 22%4.45 | 9%11.63 | 4%22.32 |
| Level | 4%22.62 | 16%6.29 | 19%5.32 |
| Palmeiras | 0%— | 2%52.36 | 23%4.31 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Cruzeiro wins3Palmeiras wins- D Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro 1-1
- D Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro 0-0
- W Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras 2-1
- L Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras 1-2
- L Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro 2-0
- D Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras 1-1
- L Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro 1-0
7 meetings in the data. Results shown from Cruzeiro's side.