Crystal Palace
Model pick
50%
Fair odds 2.02
Hull
25%
Fair odds 3.95
The prediction
- 1–112%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Crystal Palace | Draw | Hull | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Elo model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace are rated 29 points above Hull (1524 to 1496), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Crystal Palace
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Crystal Palace's chance of winning and takes the same from Hull's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Crystal Palace
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.1. Crystal Palace score 1.3 a match against an average side (18th in Premier League); Hull concede 1.3 (20th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Hull
Crystal Palace DLLDL, lost 30 rating points; Hull DDLDL, lost 9 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Crystal PalaceHullCrystal Palace
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
19 conceded
09/12
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Hull
5/10 over 2.5
13 scored
11 conceded
05/02
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Crystal Palace | Draw | Hull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 28%3.63 | 4%25.00 | 1%79.37 |
| Level | 19%5.30 | 14%6.95 | 9%11.35 |
| Hull | 4%27.55 | 6%17.21 | 16%6.38 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.