Crystal Palace
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.36Bookmakers 46%
Sociedad
32%
Fair odds 3.08Bookmakers 29%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Crystal Palace | Draw | Sociedad | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 42% | 25% | 32% |
| Elo model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| Best price on offer | 2.15 | 3.92 | 3.29 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Neutral
Crystal Palace and Sociedad are rated almost level (1524 and 1517).
-
Home advantage Favours Crystal Palace
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Crystal Palace's chance of winning and takes the same from Sociedad's.
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Attack against defence Favours Crystal Palace
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.4. Crystal Palace score 1.3 a match against an average side (18th in Premier League); Sociedad concede 1.2 (6th best defence in La Liga).
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Last 5 matches Favours Sociedad
Crystal Palace DLLDL, lost 30 rating points; Sociedad DLWWW, gained 25 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
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Bookmakers' view Favours Crystal Palace
Bookmakers rate Crystal Palace higher than the model does: Crystal Palace 46% against the model's 42%, Sociedad 29% against 32%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Crystal PalaceSociedadCrystal Palace
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
19 conceded
09/12
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Sociedad
8/10 over 2.5
23 scored
16 conceded
09/13
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 56%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Crystal Palace | Draw | Sociedad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 24%4.12 | 5%19.88 | 2%44.05 |
| Level | 16%6.41 | 14%7.19 | 12%8.17 |
| Sociedad | 3%34.01 | 5%19.05 | 18%5.42 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.