Degerfors
36%
Fair odds 2.75
Orgryte
Model pick
37%
Fair odds 2.69
The prediction
- 1–113%
- 1–28%
- 2–18%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Degerfors | Draw | Orgryte | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 36% | 26% | 37% |
| Elo model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Orgryte
Orgryte are rated 39 points above Degerfors (1291 to 1252), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Degerfors
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Degerfors's chance of winning and takes the same from Orgryte's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.4. Degerfors score 0.6 a match against an average side (18th in Allsvenskan); Orgryte concede 2.3 (17th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Orgryte
Degerfors LLLLD, lost 26 rating points; Orgryte LLDWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
DegerforsOrgryteDegerfors
4/10 over 2.5
5 scored
19 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/05
09/14
09/20
10/10
10/19
10/24
10/28
11/01
Orgryte
7/10 over 2.5
12 scored
20 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/24
10/29
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Degerfors | Draw | Orgryte |
|---|---|---|---|
| Degerfors | 26%3.89 | 7%14.86 | 3%32.57 |
| Level | 10%10.11 | 15%6.68 | 14%7.01 |
| Orgryte | 1%79.37 | 4%26.32 | 20%4.93 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Degerfors wins0Orgryte wins- D Orgryte vs Degerfors 1-1
1 meetings in the data. Results shown from Degerfors's side.