Den Haag
Model pick
47%
Fair odds 2.15
Utrecht
30%
Fair odds 3.35
The prediction
- 1–110%
- 2–19%
- 1–27%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Den Haag | Draw | Utrecht | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 47% | 24% | 30% |
| Elo model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Utrecht
Utrecht are rated 39 points above Den Haag (1492 to 1453), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Den Haag
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Den Haag's chance of winning and takes the same from Utrecht's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Den Haag
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.4. Den Haag score 1.2 a match against an average side (14th in Eredivisie); Utrecht concede 1.7 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Den Haag LLWDD, barely moved; Utrecht LDWWL, lost 8 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Den HaagUtrechtDen Haag
7/10 over 2.5
13 scored
22 conceded
08/16
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/24
11/01
Utrecht
9/10 over 2.5
18 scored
29 conceded
08/15
08/22
08/30
09/08
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Den Haag | Draw | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|---|
| Den Haag | 26%3.82 | 4%22.62 | 2%54.05 |
| Level | 17%5.96 | 12%8.12 | 10%10.13 |
| Utrecht | 4%25.00 | 6%16.69 | 19%5.38 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.