Derby
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.46
Watford
33%
Fair odds 3.05
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Derby | Draw | Watford | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 41% | 27% | 33% |
| Elo model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Derby
Derby are rated 16 points above Watford (1406 to 1389), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Derby
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Derby's chance of winning and takes the same from Watford's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Derby
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.3. Derby score 0.9 a match against an average side (22nd in Championship); Watford concede 1.6 (19th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Watford
Derby LLDLL, lost 41 rating points; Watford WLLWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Watford
Derby won 0, drew 0 and lost 4 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
DerbyWatfordDerby
5/10 over 2.5
6 scored
22 conceded
09/05
09/09
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Watford
5/10 over 2.5
9 scored
18 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/18
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Derby | Draw | Watford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 26%3.88 | 6%17.79 | 2%43.48 |
| Level | 13%7.47 | 15%6.54 | 13%7.94 |
| Watford | 2%50.00 | 5%21.69 | 18%5.43 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Derby wins4Watford wins- L Watford vs Derby 2-0
- L Derby vs Watford 2-3
- L Derby vs Watford 0-2
- L Watford vs Derby 2-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Derby's side.