Djurgarden
Model pick
50%
Fair odds 2.00
Hacken
25%
Fair odds 4.05
The prediction
- 1–112%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Djurgarden | Draw | Hacken | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Elo model | 55% | 26% | 19% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Djurgarden
Djurgarden are rated 63 points above Hacken (1487 to 1424), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Djurgarden
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Djurgarden's chance of winning and takes the same from Hacken's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Djurgarden
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.1. Djurgarden score 1.2 a match against an average side (2nd in Allsvenskan); Hacken concede 1.4 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Hacken
Djurgarden WDDWW, gained 11 rating points; Hacken WDWWW, gained 26 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Djurgarden
Djurgarden won 7, drew 2 and lost 2 of the last 11 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
DjurgardenHackenDjurgarden
4/10 over 2.5
18 scored
6 conceded
08/31
09/03
09/07
09/14
09/20
10/11
10/16
10/24
10/28
11/01
Hacken
5/10 over 2.5
19 scored
4 conceded
08/21
08/29
09/05
09/11
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/24
10/28
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Djurgarden | Draw | Hacken |
|---|---|---|---|
| Djurgarden | 30%3.28 | 4%25.06 | 1%93.46 |
| Level | 17%5.91 | 15%6.88 | 8%13.04 |
| Hacken | 3%31.75 | 6%17.30 | 16%6.09 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
7Djurgarden wins2Hacken wins- W Hacken vs Djurgarden 2-4
- W Hacken vs Djurgarden 1-6
- D Djurgarden vs Hacken 1-1
- W Hacken vs Djurgarden 1-2
- D Djurgarden vs Hacken 3-3
- W Djurgarden vs Hacken 1-0
- L Hacken vs Djurgarden 4-1
- L Djurgarden vs Hacken 0-1
- W Hacken vs Djurgarden 1-2
- W Hacken vs Djurgarden 0-1
11 meetings in the data. Results shown from Djurgarden's side.