Dortmund
Model pick
68%
Fair odds 1.46Bookmakers 72%
Elversberg
13%
Fair odds 7.74Bookmakers 11%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Dortmund | Draw | Elversberg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 68% | 19% | 13% |
| Elo model | 73% | 20% | 8% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 72% | 16% | 11% |
| Best price on offer | 1.33 | 6.25 | 9.00 |
Team news
- Serhou Guirassy Out
- Emre Can Out
- Giannis Konstantelias Out
- Justin Lerma Out
Kovac said Sabitzer (illness) has trained again and is an option; Guirassy is expected to stay in Dortmund during the international break. Fabio Silva is the likely replacement up front.
- Luis Seifert Out
- Jan Gyamerah Out
- Tom Zimmerschied Out
- Noah Darvich Doubtful
Coach Vincent Wagner gave no update on whether recently injured players could return this weekend; Elversberg's likely XI has Sirch, Pinckert, Rohr and Günther at the back.
Allowing for this news: Dortmund 68%, draw 19%, Elversberg 13% (xG 2.30 – 0.93). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: bundesliga.com, sports.yahoo.com, beinsports.com, absolutfussball.com
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Dortmund
Dortmund are rated 204 points above Elversberg (1651 to 1447), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Dortmund
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to Dortmund's chance of winning and takes the same from Elversberg's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Dortmund
Expected goals 2.3 to 0.9. Dortmund score 1.6 a match against an average side (4th in Bundesliga); Elversberg concede 1.5 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Dortmund WDWWD, gained 11 rating points; Elversberg WLWLD, gained 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Elversberg
Dortmund will have had 3 days' rest, Elversberg 8. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Dortmund
Bookmakers rate Dortmund higher than the model does: Dortmund 72% against the model's 68%, Elversberg 11% against 13%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
DortmundElversbergDortmund
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
9 conceded
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/09
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/04
Elversberg
8/10 over 2.5
20 scored
19 conceded
08/29
09/05
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 71%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 4-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Dortmund | Draw | Elversberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dortmund | 43%2.32 | 3%30.12 | 1%— |
| Level | 22%4.62 | 10%9.67 | 5%20.62 |
| Elversberg | 4%24.75 | 4%23.47 | 8%13.23 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.