Dortmund
Model pick
49%
Fair odds 2.03
Leverkusen
26%
Fair odds 3.81
The prediction
- 1–111%
- 2–110%
- 1–08%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Dortmund | Draw | Leverkusen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 49% | 24% | 26% |
| Elo model | 54% | 26% | 20% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Dortmund
Dortmund are rated 61 points above Leverkusen (1651 to 1590), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Dortmund
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Dortmund's chance of winning and takes the same from Leverkusen's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Dortmund
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.2. Dortmund score 1.6 a match against an average side (4th in Bundesliga); Leverkusen concede 1.1 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Dortmund
Dortmund WDWWD, gained 11 rating points; Leverkusen LLLWW, lost 33 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Dortmund
Dortmund won 5, drew 2 and lost 3 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
DortmundLeverkusenDortmund
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
9 conceded
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/09
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/04
Leverkusen
6/10 over 2.5
20 scored
14 conceded
09/12
09/16
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Dortmund | Draw | Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dortmund | 31%3.20 | 5%20.53 | 2%59.52 |
| Level | 16%6.37 | 14%7.39 | 9%10.89 |
| Leverkusen | 3%34.84 | 5%19.49 | 16%6.32 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Dortmund wins3Leverkusen wins- L Dortmund vs Leverkusen 0-1
- W Leverkusen vs Dortmund 1-2
- W Leverkusen vs Dortmund 2-4
- L Dortmund vs Leverkusen 2-3
- D Dortmund vs Leverkusen 1-1
- D Leverkusen vs Dortmund 1-1
- W Leverkusen vs Dortmund 0-2
- W Dortmund vs Leverkusen 1-0
- L Dortmund vs Leverkusen 2-5
- W Leverkusen vs Dortmund 3-4
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Dortmund's side.