Dresden
33%
Fair odds 3.01
St Pauli
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.48
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Dresden | Draw | St Pauli | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 33% | 26% | 40% |
| Elo model | 35% | 28% | 37% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours St Pauli
St Pauli are rated 75 points above Dresden (1391 to 1316), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Dresden
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Dresden's chance of winning and takes the same from St Pauli's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.5. Dresden score 0.9 a match against an average side (15th in 2. Bundesliga); St Pauli concede 1.4 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Dresden LLWDL, lost 10 rating points; St Pauli LDDWD, lost 5 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
DresdenSt PauliDresden
7/10 over 2.5
12 scored
20 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/25
11/01
St Pauli
4/10 over 2.5
12 scored
12 conceded
08/09
08/14
08/30
09/04
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/17
10/23
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Dresden | Draw | St Pauli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dresden | 20%5.00 | 5%18.66 | 3%39.53 |
| Level | 12%8.47 | 15%6.59 | 15%6.86 |
| St Pauli | 2%52.36 | 5%20.45 | 24%4.21 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Dresden wins1St Pauli wins- D Dresden vs St Pauli 1-1
- L St Pauli vs Dresden 3-0
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Dresden's side.