Dundee United
Model pick
58%
Fair odds 1.74
St Johnstone
20%
Fair odds 5.07
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Dundee United | Draw | St Johnstone | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 58% | 23% | 20% |
| Elo model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Dundee United
Dundee United are rated 21 points above St Johnstone (1474 to 1453), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Dundee United
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Dundee United's chance of winning and takes the same from St Johnstone's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Dundee United
Expected goals 2.0 to 1.1. Dundee United score 1.2 a match against an average side (3rd in Scottish Premiership); St Johnstone concede 1.6 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Dundee United
Dundee United DWDWW, gained 36 rating points; St Johnstone DDLDW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Dundee United won 5, drew 2 and lost 4 of the last 11 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Dundee UnitedSt JohnstoneDundee United
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
15 conceded
08/09
08/22
08/29
09/02
09/05
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/28
St Johnstone
5/10 over 2.5
11 scored
15 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/09
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/28
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 1-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Dundee United | Draw | St Johnstone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee United | 37%2.74 | 5%22.17 | 1%71.43 |
| Level | 18%5.44 | 13%7.83 | 8%13.07 |
| St Johnstone | 3%31.95 | 5%21.93 | 11%9.00 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Dundee United wins4St Johnstone wins- D St Johnstone vs Dundee United 1-1
- W Dundee United vs St Johnstone 1-0
- W St Johnstone vs Dundee United 1-2
- W Dundee United vs St Johnstone 2-0
- L St Johnstone vs Dundee United 1-0
- L Dundee United vs St Johnstone 1-2
- W St Johnstone vs Dundee United 0-1
- L Dundee United vs St Johnstone 1-2
- D St Johnstone vs Dundee United 0-0
- L Dundee United vs St Johnstone 0-1
11 meetings in the data. Results shown from Dundee United's side.