Eastleigh
27%
Fair odds 3.65
Halifax
Model pick
47%
Fair odds 2.15
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Eastleigh | Draw | Halifax | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 27% | 26% | 47% |
| Elo model | 32% | 28% | 40% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Halifax
Halifax are rated 91 points above Eastleigh (1096 to 1005), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Eastleigh
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Eastleigh's chance of winning and takes the same from Halifax's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Halifax
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.6. Eastleigh score 0.5 a match against an average side (23rd in National League); Halifax concede 2.6 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Halifax
Eastleigh DLWLL, lost 10 rating points; Halifax WLDWW, gained 21 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Halifax
Eastleigh won 2, drew 3 and lost 5 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
EastleighHalifaxEastleigh
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
18 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/19
09/26
09/30
10/03
10/28
10/31
Halifax
5/10 over 2.5
19 scored
10 conceded
09/15
09/19
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Eastleigh | Draw | Halifax |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eastleigh | 17%5.92 | 6%16.61 | 4%27.17 |
| Level | 10%10.30 | 15%6.66 | 19%5.24 |
| Halifax | 1%76.92 | 4%25.71 | 24%4.10 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Eastleigh wins5Halifax wins- L Eastleigh vs Halifax 2-3
- D Halifax vs Eastleigh 2-2
- D Eastleigh vs Halifax 1-1
- L Halifax vs Eastleigh 3-1
- L Eastleigh vs Halifax 0-3
- W Halifax vs Eastleigh 2-3
- D Halifax vs Eastleigh 1-1
- W Eastleigh vs Halifax 1-0
- L Eastleigh vs Halifax 1-2
- L Halifax vs Eastleigh 4-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Eastleigh's side.