Eastleigh
21%
Fair odds 4.66
Shrewsbury
Model pick
53%
Fair odds 1.87
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Eastleigh | Draw | Shrewsbury | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 21% | 25% | 53% |
| Elo model | 24% | 27% | 49% |
Team news
- Temi Eweka Out
Eastleigh's Sil Swinkels is suspended for a different midweek fixture, so he is not listed here; Jamal Lowe is back from a ban and Di'Shon Bernard was reported in contention after injury, per a 6 Nov preview.
- Jack Price Out
Jay Turner-Cooke and Isaac Fletcher were recently absent through suspension, but no reliable report found confirming their status for this tie, so they are not listed. Price was due a final scan before a return.
Allowing for this news: Eastleigh 23%, draw 25%, Shrewsbury 52% (xG 1.04 – 1.68). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: shropshirestar.com, footballlowdown.com, livescore.com, shropshirestar.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury are rated 153 points above Eastleigh (1158 to 1005), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Eastleigh
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Eastleigh's chance of winning and takes the same from Shrewsbury's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Shrewsbury
Expected goals 1.0 to 1.7. Eastleigh score 0.5 a match against an average side (23rd in National League); Shrewsbury concede 2.1 (12th best defence in League Two).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Eastleigh DLWLL, lost 10 rating points; Shrewsbury LDWWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
EastleighShrewsburyEastleigh
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
18 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/19
09/26
09/30
10/03
10/28
10/31
Shrewsbury
5/10 over 2.5
15 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Eastleigh | Draw | Shrewsbury |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eastleigh | 12%8.24 | 5%20.88 | 3%34.36 |
| Level | 9%11.74 | 15%6.68 | 19%5.23 |
| Shrewsbury | 1%78.74 | 4%23.09 | 32%3.13 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.