Eibar
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.32
Burgos
28%
Fair odds 3.52
The prediction
- 1–113%
- 1–012%
- 0–010%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Eibar | Draw | Burgos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 43% | 28% | 28% |
| Elo model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Eibar and Burgos are rated almost level (1423 and 1414).
-
Home advantage Favours Eibar
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Eibar's chance of winning and takes the same from Burgos's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Eibar
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.1. Eibar score 1.0 a match against an average side (8th in La Liga 2); Burgos concede 1.3 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Eibar DLDLW, lost 16 rating points; Burgos DWWLL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Eibar won 5, drew 1 and lost 4 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
EibarBurgosEibar
6/10 over 2.5
19 scored
11 conceded
08/30
09/06
09/19
09/27
10/03
10/12
10/17
10/24
10/31
Burgos
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
10 conceded
09/06
09/11
09/20
09/27
10/03
10/12
10/18
10/26
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Eibar | Draw | Burgos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar | 28%3.58 | 5%18.90 | 2%60.24 |
| Level | 14%7.10 | 18%5.63 | 11%8.88 |
| Burgos | 2%59.88 | 4%23.09 | 16%6.25 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Eibar wins4Burgos wins- D Eibar vs Burgos 0-0
- L Burgos vs Eibar 1-0
- W Eibar vs Burgos 1-0
- L Burgos vs Eibar 1-0
- L Eibar vs Burgos 0-1
- L Burgos vs Eibar 1-0
- W Eibar vs Burgos 1-0
- W Burgos vs Eibar 1-2
- W Eibar vs Burgos 2-0
- W Burgos vs Eibar 0-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Eibar's side.