Elche
29%
Fair odds 3.51
Ath Madrid
Model pick
45%
Fair odds 2.20
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Elche | Draw | Ath Madrid | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 29% | 26% | 45% |
| Elo model | 22% | 27% | 51% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Ath Madrid
Ath Madrid are rated 168 points above Elche (1632 to 1464), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Elche
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Elche's chance of winning and takes the same from Ath Madrid's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Ath Madrid
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.6. Elche score 1.2 a match against an average side (11th in La Liga); Ath Madrid concede 1.0 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Elche
Elche LWDDW, gained 30 rating points; Ath Madrid LWWDW, gained 6 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Elche won 2, drew 1 and lost 3 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ElcheAth MadridElche
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
17 conceded
08/23
09/07
09/12
09/15
09/18
10/11
10/17
10/24
11/01
Ath Madrid
4/10 over 2.5
18 scored
5 conceded
09/13
09/16
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Elche | Draw | Ath Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elche | 17%6.03 | 5%19.53 | 3%37.31 |
| Level | 11%9.36 | 15%6.65 | 16%6.21 |
| Ath Madrid | 2%57.14 | 5%20.58 | 27%3.68 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Elche wins3Ath Madrid wins- W Elche vs Ath Madrid 3-2
- D Ath Madrid vs Elche 1-1
- W Elche vs Ath Madrid 1-0
- L Ath Madrid vs Elche 2-0
- L Elche vs Ath Madrid 0-2
- L Ath Madrid vs Elche 1-0
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Elche's side.