Eldense
28%
Fair odds 3.61
Girona
Model pick
46%
Fair odds 2.17
The prediction
- 1–112%
- 0–110%
- 1–29%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Eldense | Draw | Girona | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Elo model | 23% | 27% | 50% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Girona
Girona are rated 159 points above Eldense (1468 to 1309), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Eldense
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Eldense's chance of winning and takes the same from Girona's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Girona
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.6. Eldense score 0.9 a match against an average side (17th in La Liga 2); Girona concede 1.3 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Eldense LLWWW, gained 10 rating points; Girona LWWDD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
EldenseGironaEldense
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
12 conceded
08/29
09/05
09/13
09/19
09/27
10/02
10/10
10/18
10/25
11/01
Girona
4/10 over 2.5
20 scored
8 conceded
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/25
10/04
10/12
10/18
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Eldense | Draw | Girona |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eldense | 15%6.84 | 4%23.75 | 2%50.25 |
| Level | 11%8.74 | 15%6.57 | 15%6.86 |
| Girona | 2%46.30 | 6%17.45 | 30%3.33 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.