Elfsborg
Model pick
47%
Fair odds 2.12
GAIS
25%
Fair odds 4.03
The prediction
- 1–113%
- 1–012%
- 0–010%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Elfsborg | Draw | GAIS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Elo model | 46% | 27% | 26% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Elfsborg and GAIS are rated almost level (1408 and 1403).
-
Home advantage Favours Elfsborg
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Elfsborg's chance of winning and takes the same from GAIS's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Elfsborg
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.0. Elfsborg score 1.0 a match against an average side (5th in Allsvenskan); GAIS concede 1.4 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Elfsborg
Elfsborg WDDDW, gained 12 rating points; GAIS WWDLL, lost 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Elfsborg won 2, drew 0 and lost 3 of the last 5 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ElfsborgGAISElfsborg
6/10 over 2.5
17 scored
9 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/12
10/18
10/23
10/27
11/01
GAIS
4/10 over 2.5
13 scored
11 conceded
08/23
08/31
09/05
09/14
09/20
10/10
10/18
10/25
10/29
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Elfsborg | Draw | GAIS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elfsborg | 31%3.21 | 4%27.32 | 1%— |
| Level | 15%6.88 | 18%5.60 | 7%14.88 |
| GAIS | 2%48.54 | 5%18.38 | 18%5.60 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Elfsborg wins3GAIS wins- L GAIS vs Elfsborg 1-0
- L GAIS vs Elfsborg 2-0
- W Elfsborg vs GAIS 2-0
- W Elfsborg vs GAIS 2-1
- L GAIS vs Elfsborg 2-1
5 meetings in the data. Results shown from Elfsborg's side.