Empoli
26%
Fair odds 3.78
Verona
Model pick
48%
Fair odds 2.10
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Empoli | Draw | Verona | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 26% | 26% | 48% |
| Elo model | 34% | 28% | 38% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Verona
Verona are rated 80 points above Empoli (1392 to 1312), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Empoli
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Empoli's chance of winning and takes the same from Verona's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Verona
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.6. Empoli score 0.8 a match against an average side (17th in Serie B); Verona concede 1.3 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Verona
Empoli DLLDL, lost 28 rating points; Verona WWDDL, gained 8 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Verona
Empoli won 1, drew 3 and lost 4 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
EmpoliVeronaEmpoli
5/10 over 2.5
10 scored
17 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/05
09/11
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/23
10/27
11/01
Verona
7/10 over 2.5
19 scored
13 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/11
09/20
10/11
10/16
10/25
10/28
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Empoli | Draw | Verona |
|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli | 16%6.26 | 6%17.57 | 3%29.50 |
| Level | 10%10.42 | 15%6.64 | 19%5.35 |
| Verona | 1%74.07 | 4%24.33 | 26%3.83 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Empoli wins4Verona wins- L Empoli vs Verona 1-2
- W Verona vs Empoli 1-4
- L Verona vs Empoli 2-1
- L Empoli vs Verona 0-1
- D Verona vs Empoli 1-1
- D Empoli vs Verona 1-1
- D Empoli vs Verona 1-1
- L Verona vs Empoli 2-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Empoli's side.