Everton
36%
Fair odds 2.74
Liverpool
Model pick
37%
Fair odds 2.70
The prediction
- 1–113%
- 1–28%
- 2–18%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Everton | Draw | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Elo model | 32% | 28% | 40% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Liverpool
Liverpool are rated 92 points above Everton (1646 to 1554), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Everton
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Everton's chance of winning and takes the same from Liverpool's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.4. Everton score 1.4 a match against an average side (15th in Premier League); Liverpool concede 1.0 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Everton WLLDW, barely moved; Liverpool LLWWW, gained 7 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Liverpool
Everton won 1, drew 2 and lost 7 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
EvertonLiverpoolEverton
2/10 over 2.5
9 scored
10 conceded
05/24
08/22
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/24
11/02
Liverpool
6/10 over 2.5
19 scored
15 conceded
09/09
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/25
11/01
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Everton | Draw | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | 21%4.73 | 5%18.48 | 3%38.17 |
| Level | 14%7.30 | 15%6.51 | 15%6.72 |
| Liverpool | 2%46.73 | 5%21.10 | 20%4.99 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Everton wins7Liverpool wins- L Everton vs Liverpool 1-2
- L Liverpool vs Everton 2-1
- L Liverpool vs Everton 1-0
- D Everton vs Liverpool 2-2
- W Everton vs Liverpool 2-0
- L Liverpool vs Everton 2-0
- L Liverpool vs Everton 2-0
- D Everton vs Liverpool 0-0
- L Liverpool vs Everton 2-0
- L Everton vs Liverpool 1-4
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Everton's side.