Excelsior
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.60
Telstar
37%
Fair odds 2.69
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Excelsior | Draw | Telstar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 38% | 24% | 37% |
| Elo model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Telstar
Telstar are rated 28 points above Excelsior (1458 to 1431), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Excelsior
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Excelsior's chance of winning and takes the same from Telstar's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.6. Excelsior score 1.0 a match against an average side (19th in Eredivisie); Telstar concede 1.7 (16th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Telstar
Excelsior LLLLD, lost 47 rating points; Telstar WLLDL, lost 5 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
ExcelsiorTelstarExcelsior
9/10 over 2.5
12 scored
28 conceded
08/15
08/29
09/05
09/08
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/16
10/25
11/01
Telstar
7/10 over 2.5
14 scored
22 conceded
08/14
08/30
09/06
09/09
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/17
10/23
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Excelsior | Draw | Telstar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 26%3.88 | 7%15.20 | 4%27.55 |
| Level | 11%8.91 | 13%7.89 | 14%7.05 |
| Telstar | 2%52.63 | 4%23.92 | 20%5.04 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Excelsior wins0Telstar wins- D Excelsior vs Telstar 2-2
- D Telstar vs Excelsior 2-2
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Excelsior's side.