Exeter
Model pick
56%
Fair odds 1.79
Crawley Town
20%
Fair odds 5.12
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Exeter | Draw | Crawley Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 56% | 25% | 20% |
| Elo model | 66% | 22% | 11% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Exeter
Exeter are rated 148 points above Crawley Town (1281 to 1133), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Exeter
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Exeter's chance of winning and takes the same from Crawley Town's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Exeter
Expected goals 1.8 to 0.9. Exeter score 0.7 a match against an average side (6th in League Two); Crawley Town concede 2.4 (20th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Exeter LWWDW, gained 12 rating points; Crawley Town WDLLD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Exeter won 2, drew 1 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ExeterCrawley TownExeter
2/10 over 2.5
7 scored
5 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Crawley Town
5/10 over 2.5
11 scored
19 conceded
08/29
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 3-0
- 0-1
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Exeter | Draw | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter | 35%2.86 | 5%21.98 | 1%77.52 |
| Level | 19%5.31 | 15%6.73 | 8%12.12 |
| Crawley Town | 3%38.91 | 4%23.53 | 10%9.56 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Exeter wins1Crawley Town wins- L Crawley Town vs Exeter 3-1
- D Exeter vs Crawley Town 4-4
- W Exeter vs Crawley Town 2-1
- W Crawley Town vs Exeter 1-3
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Exeter's side.