Eyupspor
23%
Fair odds 4.34
Buyuksehyr
Model pick
53%
Fair odds 1.89
The prediction
- 1–111%
- 1–210%
- 0–19%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Eyupspor | Draw | Buyuksehyr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 23% | 24% | 53% |
| Elo model | 24% | 27% | 49% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Buyuksehyr
Buyuksehyr are rated 155 points above Eyupspor (1557 to 1402), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Eyupspor
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Eyupspor's chance of winning and takes the same from Buyuksehyr's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Buyuksehyr
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.8. Eyupspor score 0.9 a match against an average side (21st in Süper Lig); Buyuksehyr concede 1.2 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Buyuksehyr
Eyupspor LLLLL, lost 44 rating points; Buyuksehyr WLWDW, gained 13 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Buyuksehyr
Eyupspor won 0, drew 2 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
EyupsporBuyuksehyrEyupspor
5/10 over 2.5
3 scored
28 conceded
08/16
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/12
10/17
10/24
11/01
Buyuksehyr
6/10 over 2.5
17 scored
16 conceded
08/16
08/23
08/30
09/04
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/26
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 1-3
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Eyupspor | Draw | Buyuksehyr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eyupspor | 14%7.33 | 5%18.94 | 3%28.82 |
| Level | 8%11.82 | 14%7.33 | 19%5.32 |
| Buyuksehyr | 1%72.99 | 4%23.42 | 31%3.22 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Eyupspor wins2Buyuksehyr wins- L Eyupspor vs Buyuksehyr 1-2
- D Buyuksehyr vs Eyupspor 0-0
- L Eyupspor vs Buyuksehyr 1-3
- D Buyuksehyr vs Eyupspor 1-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Eyupspor's side.