Eyupspor
28%
Fair odds 3.63Bookmakers 24%
Kocaelispor
Model pick
45%
Fair odds 2.25Bookmakers 48%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Eyupspor | Draw | Kocaelispor | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 28% | 28% | 45% |
| Elo model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 24% | 28% | 48% |
| Best price on offer | 4.20 | 3.40 | 1.96 |
Team news
- Talha Ülvan Doubtful
- Simone Giordano Out
- Taşkın İlter Out
Eyüpspor sit last in the table; AA and Sporx report Giordano and İlter are not expected to play. Positions for Giordano and İlter are my assumption and the long-term status is unconfirmed.
- Massadio Haïdara Out
- Bruno Petkovic Out
- Tanguy Zoukrou Out
Özgür Kocaeli (today) reports no changes expected to the starting XI and also lists Aleksandar Jovanovic as absent through injury, which other reports do not mention; the position for Zoukrou is my assumption.
Allowing for this news: Eyupspor 29%, draw 29%, Kocaelispor 42% (xG 1.07 – 1.33). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sportsmole.co.uk, mynet.com, aa.com.tr, sporx.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Kocaelispor
Kocaelispor are rated 89 points above Eyupspor (1491 to 1402), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Eyupspor
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Eyupspor's chance of winning and takes the same from Kocaelispor's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Kocaelispor
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.4. Eyupspor score 0.9 a match against an average side (21st in Süper Lig); Kocaelispor concede 1.1 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Kocaelispor
Eyupspor LLLLL, lost 44 rating points; Kocaelispor DWLLW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Kocaelispor
Bookmakers rate Kocaelispor higher than the model does: Eyupspor 24% against the model's 28%, Kocaelispor 48% against 45%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
EyupsporKocaelisporEyupspor
5/10 over 2.5
3 scored
28 conceded
08/16
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/12
10/17
10/24
11/01
Kocaelispor
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
9 conceded
08/16
08/24
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/23
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 44%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Eyupspor | Draw | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eyupspor | 18%5.63 | 6%16.95 | 3%34.72 |
| Level | 9%10.81 | 17%5.83 | 18%5.67 |
| Kocaelispor | 1%96.15 | 4%26.18 | 25%4.07 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Eyupspor wins2Kocaelispor wins- L Eyupspor vs Kocaelispor 0-1
- L Kocaelispor vs Eyupspor 1-0
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Eyupspor's side.