FC Copenhagen
Model pick
61%
Fair odds 1.64
Midtjylland
19%
Fair odds 5.35
The prediction
- 2–110%
- 1–19%
- 2–08%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| FC Copenhagen | Draw | Midtjylland | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 61% | 20% | 19% |
| Elo model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
FC Copenhagen and Midtjylland are rated almost level (1497 and 1506).
-
Home advantage Favours FC Copenhagen
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to FC Copenhagen's chance of winning and takes the same from Midtjylland's.
-
Attack against defence Favours FC Copenhagen
Expected goals 2.2 to 1.2. FC Copenhagen score 1.4 a match against an average side (1st in Danish Superliga); Midtjylland concede 1.7 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
FC Copenhagen WWDDD, barely moved; Midtjylland LWWLW, lost 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Midtjylland
FC Copenhagen won 3, drew 5 and lost 9 of the last 17 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
FC CopenhagenMidtjyllandFC Copenhagen
5/10 over 2.5
20 scored
7 conceded
09/06
09/11
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/26
11/02
11/05
Midtjylland
7/10 over 2.5
19 scored
18 conceded
09/07
09/14
09/19
10/11
10/15
10/19
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 2-2
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | FC Copenhagen | Draw | Midtjylland |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Copenhagen | 32%3.14 | 3%34.72 | 1%— |
| Level | 23%4.34 | 10%9.57 | 6%17.83 |
| Midtjylland | 6%15.67 | 6%15.67 | 13%7.94 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3FC Copenhagen wins9Midtjylland wins- L Midtjylland vs FC Copenhagen 2-1
- L Midtjylland vs FC Copenhagen 2-1
- D FC Copenhagen vs Midtjylland 1-1
- D FC Copenhagen vs Midtjylland 1-1
- L Midtjylland vs FC Copenhagen 4-2
- W FC Copenhagen vs Midtjylland 1-0
- L Midtjylland vs FC Copenhagen 2-1
- L FC Copenhagen vs Midtjylland 1-2
- D Midtjylland vs FC Copenhagen 2-2
- L Midtjylland vs FC Copenhagen 2-0
17 meetings in the data. Results shown from FC Copenhagen's side.