FC Koln
Model pick
49%
Fair odds 2.03
Elversberg
26%
Fair odds 3.78
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| FC Koln | Draw | Elversberg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 49% | 24% | 26% |
| Elo model | 43% | 28% | 30% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Elversberg
Elversberg are rated 20 points above FC Koln (1447 to 1427), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours FC Koln
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to FC Koln's chance of winning and takes the same from Elversberg's.
-
Attack against defence Favours FC Koln
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.3. FC Koln score 1.2 a match against an average side (12th in Bundesliga); Elversberg concede 1.5 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
FC Koln DDLWL, barely moved; Elversberg WLWLD, gained 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
FC KolnElversbergFC Koln
6/10 over 2.5
11 scored
20 conceded
05/10
05/16
08/29
09/04
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/16
10/24
11/01
Elversberg
8/10 over 2.5
20 scored
19 conceded
08/29
09/05
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | FC Koln | Draw | Elversberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Koln | 30%3.37 | 5%21.01 | 2%55.87 |
| Level | 17%5.90 | 13%7.56 | 10%10.36 |
| Elversberg | 3%30.49 | 5%19.08 | 15%6.46 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1FC Koln wins0Elversberg wins- W FC Koln vs Elversberg 1-0
- D Elversberg vs FC Koln 2-2
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from FC Koln's side.