FCSB
Model pick
54%
Fair odds 1.86Bookmakers 60%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| FCSB | Draw | Corvinul | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Elo model | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Best price on offer | 1.54 | 4.33 | 5.50 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours FCSB
FCSB are rated 80 points above Corvinul (1443 to 1363), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours FCSB
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to FCSB's chance of winning and takes the same from Corvinul's.
-
Attack against defence Favours FCSB
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.1. FCSB score 1.0 a match against an average side (6th in Romanian Liga 1); Corvinul concede 1.7 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
FCSB LWWWL, gained 9 rating points; Corvinul WLLWW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours FCSB
Bookmakers rate FCSB higher than the model does: FCSB 60% against the model's 54%, Corvinul 18% against 22%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
FCSBCorvinulFCSB
7/10 over 2.5
14 scored
18 conceded
08/23
09/05
09/19
10/10
10/24
08/16
08/29
09/13
09/21
10/17
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | FCSB | Draw | Corvinul |
|---|---|---|---|
| FCSB | 31%3.21 | 4%28.57 | 1%— |
| Level | 19%5.25 | 13%7.46 | 7%14.97 |
| Corvinul | 4%24.81 | 6%16.23 | 15%6.60 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.