Fenerbahce
Model pick
63%
Fair odds 1.60
Erzurumspor
17%
Fair odds 5.89
The prediction
- 2–110%
- 1–19%
- 2–09%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Fenerbahce | Draw | Erzurumspor | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 63% | 20% | 17% |
| Elo model | 63% | 23% | 13% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Fenerbahce
Fenerbahce are rated 124 points above Erzurumspor (1616 to 1492), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Fenerbahce
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Fenerbahce's chance of winning and takes the same from Erzurumspor's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Fenerbahce
Expected goals 2.2 to 1.1. Fenerbahce score 1.6 a match against an average side (4th in Süper Lig); Erzurumspor concede 1.4 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Erzurumspor
Fenerbahce WLLDW, lost 9 rating points; Erzurumspor LWWDW, gained 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
FenerbahceErzurumsporFenerbahce
8/10 over 2.5
22 scored
15 conceded
09/10
09/14
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/26
10/31
11/04
Erzurumspor
5/10 over 2.5
9 scored
15 conceded
08/16
08/21
08/28
09/05
09/11
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 2-2
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Fenerbahce | Draw | Erzurumspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce | 44%2.29 | 5%19.80 | 2%58.82 |
| Level | 17%5.95 | 11%9.13 | 7%14.06 |
| Erzurumspor | 3%37.59 | 4%27.78 | 9%11.72 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.