Feyenoord
38%
Fair odds 2.63
Ajax
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.58
The prediction
- 1–110%
- 1–28%
- 2–18%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Feyenoord | Draw | Ajax | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 38% | 23% | 39% |
| Elo model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Ajax
Ajax are rated 16 points above Feyenoord (1617 to 1602), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Feyenoord
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Feyenoord's chance of winning and takes the same from Ajax's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.8. Feyenoord score 1.7 a match against an average side (4th in Eredivisie); Ajax concede 1.1 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Ajax
Feyenoord LDDLW, lost 18 rating points; Ajax WWWWW, gained 50 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Ajax
Feyenoord won 3, drew 2 and lost 5 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
FeyenoordAjaxFeyenoord
6/10 over 2.5
24 scored
16 conceded
09/09
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
11/03
Ajax
7/10 over 2.5
30 scored
11 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 0-1
- 1-3
- 1-0
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Feyenoord | Draw | Ajax |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | 27%3.66 | 8%12.92 | 5%19.12 |
| Level | 10%10.42 | 11%8.92 | 16%6.40 |
| Ajax | 2%64.94 | 3%29.50 | 18%5.44 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Feyenoord wins5Ajax wins- D Feyenoord vs Ajax 1-1
- L Ajax vs Feyenoord 2-0
- L Ajax vs Feyenoord 2-1
- L Feyenoord vs Ajax 0-2
- W Feyenoord vs Ajax 6-0
- W Ajax vs Feyenoord 0-4
- W Ajax vs Feyenoord 2-3
- D Feyenoord vs Ajax 1-1
- L Ajax vs Feyenoord 3-2
- L Feyenoord vs Ajax 0-2
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Feyenoord's side.