Flamengo RJ
Model pick
78%
Fair odds 1.29
Athletico-PR
8%
Fair odds 12.97
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Flamengo RJ | Draw | Athletico-PR | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 78% | 15% | 8% |
| Elo model | 72% | 20% | 8% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Flamengo RJ
Flamengo RJ are rated 194 points above Athletico-PR (1565 to 1371), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Flamengo RJ
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to Flamengo RJ's chance of winning and takes the same from Athletico-PR's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Flamengo RJ
Expected goals 2.6 to 0.7. Flamengo RJ score 1.5 a match against an average side (1st in Brasileirão); Athletico-PR concede 1.7 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Flamengo RJ
Flamengo RJ WWWWW, gained 28 rating points; Athletico-PR LLDLW, lost 27 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Flamengo RJ won 3, drew 3 and lost 3 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Flamengo RJAthletico-PRFlamengo RJ
7/10 over 2.5
23 scored
8 conceded
09/02
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/08
10/11
10/18
10/26
10/29
11/04
Athletico-PR
7/10 over 2.5
17 scored
21 conceded
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/09
10/12
10/17
10/24
10/30
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 1-1
- 4-0
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Flamengo RJ | Draw | Athletico-PR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo RJ | 35%2.85 | 0%— | 0%— |
| Level | 32%3.16 | 7%14.90 | 1%— |
| Athletico-PR | 11%8.88 | 7%14.41 | 7%13.97 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Flamengo RJ wins3Athletico-PR wins- D Athletico-PR vs Flamengo RJ 1-1
- W Flamengo RJ vs Athletico-PR 1-0
- D Athletico-PR vs Flamengo RJ 1-1
- L Flamengo RJ vs Athletico-PR 0-3
- L Athletico-PR vs Flamengo RJ 2-1
- W Flamengo RJ vs Athletico-PR 5-0
- L Athletico-PR vs Flamengo RJ 1-0
- D Athletico-PR vs Flamengo RJ 2-2
- W Flamengo RJ vs Athletico-PR 3-0
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from Flamengo RJ's side.