Fleetwood Town
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.37
Accrington
30%
Fair odds 3.32
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Fleetwood Town | Draw | Accrington | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Elo model | 45% | 27% | 27% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Fleetwood Town and Accrington are rated almost level (1195 and 1196).
-
Home advantage Favours Fleetwood Town
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Fleetwood Town's chance of winning and takes the same from Accrington's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Fleetwood Town
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.1. Fleetwood Town score 0.7 a match against an average side (8th in League Two); Accrington concede 1.9 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Accrington
Fleetwood Town WLLWD, barely moved; Accrington DWDWD, gained 37 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town won 5, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Fleetwood TownAccringtonFleetwood Town
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
15 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Accrington
4/10 over 2.5
17 scored
8 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Fleetwood Town | Draw | Accrington |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town | 26%3.92 | 5%19.34 | 2%52.91 |
| Level | 15%6.59 | 17%5.98 | 12%8.21 |
| Accrington | 2%48.08 | 5%21.46 | 17%6.02 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Fleetwood Town wins2Accrington wins- W Accrington vs Fleetwood Town 1-2
- W Fleetwood Town vs Accrington 2-1
- W Accrington vs Fleetwood Town 1-4
- D Fleetwood Town vs Accrington 1-1
- W Accrington vs Fleetwood Town 2-5
- W Fleetwood Town vs Accrington 3-0
- L Fleetwood Town vs Accrington 1-2
- L Accrington vs Fleetwood Town 5-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Fleetwood Town's side.