Fluminense
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.58
Cruzeiro
34%
Fair odds 2.98
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Fluminense | Draw | Cruzeiro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 39% | 28% | 34% |
| Elo model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro are rated 25 points above Fluminense (1451 to 1426), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Fluminense
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Fluminense's chance of winning and takes the same from Cruzeiro's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.2. Fluminense score 0.9 a match against an average side (5th in Brasileirão); Cruzeiro concede 1.4 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Cruzeiro
Fluminense WLLLW, lost 13 rating points; Cruzeiro WWWWL, gained 13 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Fluminense won 3, drew 2 and lost 2 of the last 7 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
FluminenseCruzeiroFluminense
8/10 over 2.5
18 scored
14 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/09
10/11
10/18
10/24
10/28
Cruzeiro
7/10 over 2.5
21 scored
15 conceded
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/08
10/13
10/18
10/23
10/29
11/06
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Fluminense | Draw | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense | 27%3.65 | 6%16.69 | 2%47.62 |
| Level | 11%9.46 | 17%6.05 | 12%8.32 |
| Cruzeiro | 1%77.52 | 4%24.39 | 20%5.01 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Fluminense wins2Cruzeiro wins- D Cruzeiro vs Fluminense 1-1
- D Cruzeiro vs Fluminense 0-0
- L Fluminense vs Cruzeiro 0-2
- W Fluminense vs Cruzeiro 1-0
- L Cruzeiro vs Fluminense 2-0
- W Fluminense vs Cruzeiro 1-0
- W Cruzeiro vs Fluminense 0-2
7 meetings in the data. Results shown from Fluminense's side.