Fluminense
Model pick
54%
Fair odds 1.84
Mirassol
20%
Fair odds 4.88
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Fluminense | Draw | Mirassol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 54% | 25% | 20% |
| Elo model | 53% | 26% | 21% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Fluminense
Fluminense are rated 51 points above Mirassol (1426 to 1375), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Fluminense
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Fluminense's chance of winning and takes the same from Mirassol's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Fluminense
Expected goals 1.7 to 0.9. Fluminense score 0.9 a match against an average side (5th in Brasileirão); Mirassol concede 1.8 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Fluminense WLLLW, lost 13 rating points; Mirassol WLDWL, lost 6 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Fluminense won 1, drew 0 and lost 2 of the last 3 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
FluminenseMirassolFluminense
8/10 over 2.5
18 scored
14 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/09
10/11
10/18
10/24
10/28
Mirassol
3/10 over 2.5
12 scored
11 conceded
09/02
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/07
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/30
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Fluminense | Draw | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense | 32%3.10 | 3%35.46 | 0%— |
| Level | 19%5.26 | 15%6.68 | 5%19.42 |
| Mirassol | 4%27.32 | 6%15.58 | 15%6.55 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Fluminense wins2Mirassol wins- L Mirassol vs Fluminense 1-0
- W Fluminense vs Mirassol 1-0
- L Mirassol vs Fluminense 2-1
3 meetings in the data. Results shown from Fluminense's side.