For Sittard
36%
Fair odds 2.82
Heerenveen
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.55
The prediction
- 1–112%
- 1–29%
- 2–18%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| For Sittard | Draw | Heerenveen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 36% | 25% | 39% |
| Elo model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Heerenveen
Heerenveen are rated 55 points above For Sittard (1528 to 1473), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours For Sittard
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to For Sittard's chance of winning and takes the same from Heerenveen's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.6. For Sittard score 1.2 a match against an average side (12th in Eredivisie); Heerenveen concede 1.3 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
For Sittard DWDDW, gained 23 rating points; Heerenveen WWWLW, gained 37 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
For Sittard won 4, drew 2 and lost 4 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
For SittardHeerenveenFor Sittard
5/10 over 2.5
16 scored
16 conceded
08/15
08/22
08/28
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/25
10/31
Heerenveen
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
13 conceded
08/16
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/09
10/16
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 0-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | For Sittard | Draw | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|---|
| For Sittard | 22%4.51 | 6%17.36 | 3%33.78 |
| Level | 12%8.52 | 14%7.29 | 14%7.03 |
| Heerenveen | 2%48.31 | 5%21.01 | 23%4.42 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4For Sittard wins4Heerenveen wins- L Heerenveen vs For Sittard 2-1
- W For Sittard vs Heerenveen 2-0
- D Heerenveen vs For Sittard 2-2
- W For Sittard vs Heerenveen 3-0
- D For Sittard vs Heerenveen 3-3
- L Heerenveen vs For Sittard 3-0
- W For Sittard vs Heerenveen 2-0
- L Heerenveen vs For Sittard 2-1
- W For Sittard vs Heerenveen 2-0
- L Heerenveen vs For Sittard 1-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from For Sittard's side.