Forest Green
Model pick
50%
Fair odds 2.01
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Forest Green | Draw | Tamworth | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 50% | 24% | 27% |
| Elo model | 53% | 26% | 21% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Forest Green
Forest Green are rated 52 points above Tamworth (1087 to 1035), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Forest Green
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Forest Green's chance of winning and takes the same from Tamworth's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Forest Green
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.3. Forest Green score 0.6 a match against an average side (10th in National League); Tamworth concede 3.2 (17th best defence).
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Last 5 matches Favours Tamworth
Forest Green DWLDD, lost 14 rating points; Tamworth LWLWW, gained 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Forest Green won 2, drew 1 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Forest GreenTamworthForest Green
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
16 conceded
08/31
09/12
09/15
09/26
09/29
10/10
10/28
10/31
09/12
09/15
09/19
09/26
09/30
10/03
10/10
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Forest Green | Draw | Tamworth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forest Green | 32%3.14 | 5%18.76 | 2%46.73 |
| Level | 16%6.42 | 13%7.87 | 10%10.02 |
| Tamworth | 3%34.97 | 5%21.10 | 15%6.75 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Forest Green wins- L Tamworth vs Forest Green 1-0
- W Forest Green vs Tamworth 4-2
- W Forest Green vs Tamworth 3-0
- D Tamworth vs Forest Green 1-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Forest Green's side.