Fredrikstad
Model pick
49%
Fair odds 2.03
Aalesund
27%
Fair odds 3.75
The prediction
- 1–111%
- 2–110%
- 1–08%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Fredrikstad | Draw | Aalesund | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 49% | 24% | 27% |
| Elo model | 57% | 25% | 17% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad are rated 83 points above Aalesund (1345 to 1262), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Fredrikstad
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Fredrikstad's chance of winning and takes the same from Aalesund's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Fredrikstad
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.3. Fredrikstad score 0.8 a match against an average side (15th in Eliteserien); Aalesund concede 2.4 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Aalesund
Fredrikstad LLLDD, lost 24 rating points; Aalesund LLWLW, gained 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
FredrikstadAalesundFredrikstad
5/10 over 2.5
13 scored
17 conceded
08/08
08/16
08/30
09/04
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/17
10/25
10/31
Aalesund
8/10 over 2.5
22 scored
22 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/30
09/04
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Fredrikstad | Draw | Aalesund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fredrikstad | 29%3.40 | 5%22.08 | 2%61.35 |
| Level | 17%5.92 | 13%7.62 | 9%10.95 |
| Aalesund | 3%28.99 | 6%18.02 | 16%6.12 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Fredrikstad wins0Aalesund wins- W Aalesund vs Fredrikstad 2-3
1 meetings in the data. Results shown from Fredrikstad's side.