Freiburg
Model pick
45%
Fair odds 2.23
RB Leipzig
31%
Fair odds 3.23
The prediction
- 1–111%
- 2–19%
- 1–27%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Freiburg | Draw | RB Leipzig | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 45% | 24% | 31% |
| Elo model | 45% | 28% | 28% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Freiburg and RB Leipzig are rated almost level (1564 and 1569).
-
Home advantage Favours Freiburg
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Freiburg's chance of winning and takes the same from RB Leipzig's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Freiburg
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.4. Freiburg score 1.5 a match against an average side (7th in Bundesliga); RB Leipzig concede 1.3 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Freiburg WWLLL, barely moved; RB Leipzig LWWLL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours RB Leipzig
Freiburg won 1, drew 3 and lost 6 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
FreiburgRB LeipzigFreiburg
8/10 over 2.5
18 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
RB Leipzig
7/10 over 2.5
23 scored
19 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Freiburg | Draw | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freiburg | 24%4.22 | 4%25.19 | 2%63.29 |
| Level | 17%5.77 | 13%7.89 | 10%10.35 |
| RB Leipzig | 4%22.99 | 7%15.24 | 20%4.96 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Freiburg wins6RB Leipzig wins- W Freiburg vs RB Leipzig 4-1
- L RB Leipzig vs Freiburg 2-0
- D Freiburg vs RB Leipzig 0-0
- L RB Leipzig vs Freiburg 3-1
- L Freiburg vs RB Leipzig 1-4
- L RB Leipzig vs Freiburg 3-1
- L Freiburg vs RB Leipzig 0-1
- L RB Leipzig vs Freiburg 3-1
- D RB Leipzig vs Freiburg 1-1
- D Freiburg vs RB Leipzig 1-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Freiburg's side.