Frosinone
Model pick
56%
Fair odds 1.77
Parma
20%
Fair odds 4.89
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Frosinone | Draw | Parma | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 56% | 23% | 20% |
| Elo model | 56% | 26% | 19% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Frosinone
Frosinone are rated 70 points above Parma (1520 to 1450), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Frosinone
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Frosinone's chance of winning and takes the same from Parma's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Frosinone
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.1. Frosinone score 1.4 a match against an average side (5th in Serie A); Parma concede 1.3 (10th best defence).
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Last 5 matches Favours Frosinone
Frosinone WWDWL, gained 22 rating points; Parma WDLLL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Frosinone won 1, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
FrosinoneParmaFrosinone
6/10 over 2.5
24 scored
14 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/16
10/25
10/29
11/01
Parma
6/10 over 2.5
8 scored
15 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/06
09/14
09/20
10/10
10/19
10/24
10/28
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Frosinone | Draw | Parma |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone | 32%3.13 | 4%27.10 | 1%93.46 |
| Level | 21%4.82 | 13%7.69 | 7%13.91 |
| Parma | 4%24.15 | 6%18.02 | 13%7.93 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Frosinone wins2Parma wins- L Frosinone vs Parma 3-4
- L Parma vs Frosinone 2-1
- W Parma vs Frosinone 0-1
- D Frosinone vs Parma 2-2
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Frosinone's side.