Fulham
32%
Fair odds 3.14
Bournemouth
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.42
The prediction
- 1–113%
- 0–19%
- 1–29%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Fulham | Draw | Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 32% | 27% | 41% |
| Elo model | 34% | 28% | 38% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Bournemouth
Bournemouth are rated 82 points above Fulham (1629 to 1547), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Fulham
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Fulham's chance of winning and takes the same from Bournemouth's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Bournemouth
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.4. Fulham score 1.5 a match against an average side (12th in Premier League); Bournemouth concede 0.8 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Bournemouth
Fulham DWWLD, gained 14 rating points; Bournemouth WWWWW, gained 52 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Bournemouth
Fulham won 1, drew 4 and lost 5 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
FulhamBournemouthFulham
3/10 over 2.5
11 scored
11 conceded
05/24
08/24
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/31
Bournemouth
7/10 over 2.5
21 scored
10 conceded
09/12
09/17
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Fulham | Draw | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | 20%5.08 | 6%17.06 | 3%33.44 |
| Level | 11%9.00 | 16%6.38 | 16%6.09 |
| Bournemouth | 2%64.94 | 4%23.47 | 22%4.46 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Fulham wins5Bournemouth wins- L Fulham vs Bournemouth 0-1
- L Bournemouth vs Fulham 3-1
- L Bournemouth vs Fulham 1-0
- D Fulham vs Bournemouth 2-2
- W Fulham vs Bournemouth 3-1
- L Bournemouth vs Fulham 3-0
- L Bournemouth vs Fulham 2-1
- D Fulham vs Bournemouth 2-2
- D Bournemouth vs Fulham 1-1
- D Fulham vs Bournemouth 1-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Fulham's side.