Fulham
Model pick
53%
Fair odds 1.88Bookmakers 46%
Newcastle
22%
Fair odds 4.46Bookmakers 28%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Fulham | Draw | Newcastle | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 53% | 24% | 22% |
| Elo model | 42% | 28% | 31% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Best price on offer | 2.10 | 3.75 | 3.50 |
Team news
- Tom Cairney Out
Fulham otherwise fit; Ryan Sessegnon reported back from a three-match ban (one listing still shows him unavailable, so confirm at the team sheet).
- Joelinton Out
- Jacob Ramsey Out
- Tino Livramento Out
- Ewen Jaouen Out
- Lewis Miley Doubtful
- Matias Fernandez-Pardo Doubtful
Jacob Murphy, Yoane Wissa and Nico Gonzalez each have three yellow cards and are two bookings from a one-match ban, but none is suspended for this match.
Allowing for this news: Fulham 55%, draw 24%, Newcastle 21% (xG 1.80 – 1.04). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: themag.co.uk, rotowire.com, shieldsgazette.com, livescore.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Newcastle
Newcastle are rated 26 points above Fulham (1573 to 1547), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Fulham
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Fulham's chance of winning and takes the same from Newcastle's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Fulham
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.1. Fulham score 1.5 a match against an average side (12th in Premier League); Newcastle concede 1.2 (17th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Fulham
Fulham DWWLD, gained 14 rating points; Newcastle LWLLW, lost 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Newcastle
Bookmakers rate Newcastle higher than the model does: Fulham 46% against the model's 53%, Newcastle 28% against 22%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Newcastle
Fulham won 3, drew 0 and lost 5 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
FulhamNewcastleFulham
3/10 over 2.5
11 scored
11 conceded
05/24
08/24
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/31
Newcastle
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
17 conceded
05/24
08/23
08/29
09/05
09/14
09/19
10/12
10/17
10/25
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 57%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Fulham | Draw | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | 29%3.41 | 4%26.81 | 1%89.29 |
| Level | 20%4.88 | 14%7.23 | 8%12.64 |
| Newcastle | 4%24.94 | 6%17.39 | 14%7.22 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Fulham wins5Newcastle wins- W Fulham vs Newcastle 2-0
- L Newcastle vs Fulham 2-1
- W Newcastle vs Fulham 1-2
- W Fulham vs Newcastle 3-1
- L Fulham vs Newcastle 0-1
- L Newcastle vs Fulham 3-0
- L Newcastle vs Fulham 1-0
- L Fulham vs Newcastle 1-4
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Fulham's side.