Fylde
Model pick
56%
Fair odds 1.77
Aldershot
21%
Fair odds 4.70
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Fylde | Draw | Aldershot | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 56% | 22% | 21% |
| Elo model | 52% | 26% | 22% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Fylde
Fylde are rated 42 points above Aldershot (1051 to 1010), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Fylde
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Fylde's chance of winning and takes the same from Aldershot's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Fylde
Expected goals 2.0 to 1.2. Fylde score 0.6 a match against an average side (12th in National League); Aldershot concede 3.6 (23rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Fylde
Fylde WWLWL, gained 15 rating points; Aldershot WLLLL, lost 31 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Fylde won 2, drew 0 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
FyldeAldershotFylde
7/10 over 2.5
17 scored
15 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/19
09/29
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/27
Aldershot
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
15 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/19
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/28
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 2-2
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Fylde | Draw | Aldershot |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fylde | 36%2.75 | 4%22.88 | 1%74.63 |
| Level | 17%5.86 | 12%8.33 | 7%13.95 |
| Aldershot | 3%29.24 | 5%19.65 | 13%7.61 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Fylde wins2Aldershot wins- L Aldershot vs Fylde 2-0
- W Fylde vs Aldershot 5-2
- W Aldershot vs Fylde 0-5
- L Fylde vs Aldershot 0-2
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Fylde's side.