Galatasaray
Model pick
46%
Fair odds 2.18Bookmakers 36%
Aston Villa
31%
Fair odds 3.22Bookmakers 39%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Galatasaray: 46% here, 36% with bookmakers; Aston Villa: 31% here, 39% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Galatasaray | Draw | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 46% | 23% | 31% |
| Elo model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 36% | 25% | 39% |
| Best price on offer | 2.70 | 4.00 | 2.54 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Galatasaray
Galatasaray are rated 16 points above Aston Villa (1667 to 1651), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Galatasaray
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Galatasaray's chance of winning and takes the same from Aston Villa's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Galatasaray
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.6. Galatasaray score 1.9 a match against an average side (1st in Süper Lig); Aston Villa concede 0.9 (5th best defence in Premier League).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Galatasaray
Galatasaray WWWWW, gained 38 rating points; Aston Villa LDWWW, gained 7 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Aston Villa
Bookmakers rate Aston Villa higher than the model does: Galatasaray 36% against the model's 46%, Aston Villa 39% against 31%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
GalatasarayAston VillaGalatasaray
7/10 over 2.5
19 scored
15 conceded
09/09
09/13
09/19
10/09
10/13
10/17
10/21
10/26
10/30
11/03
Aston Villa
8/10 over 2.5
22 scored
14 conceded
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 65%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 1-0
- 3-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Galatasaray | Draw | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | 34%2.93 | 9%11.74 | 6%17.83 |
| Level | 11%9.14 | 11%9.03 | 15%6.79 |
| Aston Villa | 1%74.63 | 3%39.37 | 11%8.98 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.