Gaziantep
30%
Fair odds 3.29
Amedspor
Model pick
45%
Fair odds 2.24
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Gaziantep | Draw | Amedspor | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Elo model | 29% | 28% | 44% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Amedspor
Amedspor are rated 118 points above Gaziantep (1552 to 1434), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Gaziantep
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Gaziantep's chance of winning and takes the same from Amedspor's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Amedspor
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.7. Gaziantep score 1.2 a match against an average side (11th in Süper Lig); Amedspor concede 1.2 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Amedspor
Gaziantep LLLLL, lost 42 rating points; Amedspor WWWDW, gained 25 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
GaziantepAmedsporGaziantep
5/10 over 2.5
9 scored
17 conceded
08/15
08/23
08/29
09/07
09/14
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/24
11/01
Amedspor
8/10 over 2.5
25 scored
11 conceded
08/16
08/24
08/31
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Gaziantep | Draw | Amedspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gaziantep | 20%5.03 | 7%15.11 | 4%23.98 |
| Level | 10%10.48 | 14%7.35 | 18%5.61 |
| Amedspor | 1%71.94 | 4%26.25 | 23%4.32 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.