Gil Vicente
Model pick
54%
Fair odds 1.84
Estoril
20%
Fair odds 4.88
The prediction
- 1–112%
- 1–011%
- 2–010%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Estoril | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 54% | 25% | 20% |
| Elo model | 57% | 25% | 18% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Gil Vicente
Gil Vicente are rated 79 points above Estoril (1502 to 1422), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Gil Vicente
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Gil Vicente's chance of winning and takes the same from Estoril's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Gil Vicente
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.0. Gil Vicente score 1.1 a match against an average side (11th in Primeira Liga); Estoril concede 1.5 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Gil Vicente
Gil Vicente DLWWD, gained 6 rating points; Estoril LLLLL, lost 34 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Gil Vicente won 3, drew 3 and lost 4 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Gil VicenteEstorilGil Vicente
2/10 over 2.5
8 scored
7 conceded
08/09
08/24
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/09
10/19
10/24
Estoril
5/10 over 2.5
5 scored
19 conceded
08/07
08/16
08/22
08/31
09/07
09/14
09/20
10/10
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Gil Vicente | Draw | Estoril |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente | 33%3.03 | 4%23.36 | 1%84.75 |
| Level | 19%5.22 | 15%6.62 | 8%12.27 |
| Estoril | 3%35.59 | 5%21.37 | 12%8.61 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Gil Vicente wins4Estoril wins- L Estoril vs Gil Vicente 3-1
- W Gil Vicente vs Estoril 2-0
- L Gil Vicente vs Estoril 1-2
- D Estoril vs Gil Vicente 0-0
- W Estoril vs Gil Vicente 1-3
- W Gil Vicente vs Estoril 5-3
- L Estoril vs Gil Vicente 1-0
- L Gil Vicente vs Estoril 0-1
- D Gil Vicente vs Estoril 0-0
- D Estoril vs Gil Vicente 2-2
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Gil Vicente's side.