Goteborg
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.47
Sirius
34%
Fair odds 2.91
The prediction
- 1–112%
- 2–19%
- 1–28%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Goteborg | Draw | Sirius | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| Elo model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Sirius
Sirius are rated 64 points above Goteborg (1445 to 1381), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Goteborg
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Goteborg's chance of winning and takes the same from Sirius's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.4. Goteborg score 0.9 a match against an average side (10th in Allsvenskan); Sirius concede 1.8 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Goteborg
Goteborg LDDDW, gained 5 rating points; Sirius WLLDW, lost 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Goteborg won 4, drew 3 and lost 3 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
GoteborgSiriusGoteborg
3/10 over 2.5
14 scored
8 conceded
08/23
08/30
09/07
09/12
09/19
10/09
10/17
10/25
10/28
11/01
Sirius
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
11 conceded
08/21
08/31
09/05
09/14
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/24
10/29
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Goteborg | Draw | Sirius |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goteborg | 27%3.77 | 6%16.39 | 3%34.48 |
| Level | 12%8.04 | 14%7.34 | 13%7.66 |
| Sirius | 2%48.78 | 4%22.47 | 19%5.30 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Goteborg wins3Sirius wins- L Sirius vs Goteborg 4-1
- W Sirius vs Goteborg 0-1
- W Goteborg vs Sirius 3-1
- D Goteborg vs Sirius 1-1
- D Sirius vs Goteborg 2-2
- L Goteborg vs Sirius 0-1
- L Sirius vs Goteborg 2-0
- W Goteborg vs Sirius 2-0
- W Sirius vs Goteborg 1-2
- D Sirius vs Goteborg 3-3
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Goteborg's side.