Granada
Model pick
55%
Fair odds 1.81
Ceuta
21%
Fair odds 4.71
The prediction
- 1–111%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Granada | Draw | Ceuta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 55% | 23% | 21% |
| Elo model | 59% | 25% | 16% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Granada
Granada are rated 97 points above Ceuta (1384 to 1286), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Granada
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Granada's chance of winning and takes the same from Ceuta's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Granada
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.1. Granada score 1.0 a match against an average side (10th in La Liga 2); Ceuta concede 1.9 (26th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Granada
Granada WWWWW, gained 41 rating points; Ceuta LLLLD, lost 28 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
GranadaCeutaGranada
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
14 conceded
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/20
09/26
10/12
10/18
10/23
11/01
Ceuta
6/10 over 2.5
9 scored
20 conceded
08/30
09/11
09/20
10/04
10/10
10/18
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 1-2
- 3-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Granada | Draw | Ceuta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Granada | 32%3.12 | 4%26.32 | 1%90.91 |
| Level | 20%5.04 | 13%7.65 | 7%13.74 |
| Ceuta | 4%25.13 | 6%17.86 | 13%7.53 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Granada wins1Ceuta wins- L Ceuta vs Granada 2-1
- D Granada vs Ceuta 1-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Granada's side.