Greuther Furth
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.65
Bielefeld
37%
Fair odds 2.70
The prediction
- 1–112%
- 2–18%
- 1–28%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Greuther Furth | Draw | Bielefeld | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 38% | 25% | 37% |
| Elo model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Bielefeld
Bielefeld are rated 42 points above Greuther Furth (1352 to 1310), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Greuther Furth
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Greuther Furth's chance of winning and takes the same from Bielefeld's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.5. Greuther Furth score 0.9 a match against an average side (14th in 2. Bundesliga); Bielefeld concede 1.7 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Bielefeld
Greuther Furth WLWLD, barely moved; Bielefeld WLWWD, gained 17 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Greuther Furth
Greuther Furth won 3, drew 3 and lost 0 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Greuther FurthBielefeldGreuther Furth
4/10 over 2.5
13 scored
16 conceded
08/09
08/15
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/18
10/11
10/17
10/25
11/01
Bielefeld
8/10 over 2.5
16 scored
15 conceded
08/08
08/16
08/29
09/04
09/11
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/24
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 2-2
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 0 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Greuther Furth | Draw | Bielefeld |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greuther Furth | 23%4.29 | 6%17.79 | 3%36.50 |
| Level | 13%7.91 | 14%7.24 | 13%7.41 |
| Bielefeld | 2%44.44 | 5%20.49 | 21%4.71 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Greuther Furth wins0Bielefeld wins- W Greuther Furth vs Bielefeld 2-1
- W Bielefeld vs Greuther Furth 1-3
- D Bielefeld vs Greuther Furth 1-1
- W Greuther Furth vs Bielefeld 1-0
- D Bielefeld vs Greuther Furth 2-2
- D Greuther Furth vs Bielefeld 1-1
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Greuther Furth's side.